• Shorter timelines help projects meet the tax credit sunset in the bill
• Smaller projects being offered at a discount in the M&A market

Distributed solar developers are safe harboring large portions of their pipeline ahead of key regulatory deadlines following the passage of One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and a subsequent executive order (EO) by President Donald Trump, industry executives told NPM in recent interviews, some by procuring parts and equipment while others aim to hit construction deadlines.

SolarBankPresident and CEO Richard Lu told NPM that his company is moving “full speed ahead” with advancing its pipeline of projects through the construction phase in order to safe harbor against both investment tax credit (ITC) rollbacks and foreign entities of concern (FEOC) uncertainty.

“If we get them into construction before the end of the year, there’s no foreign entity of concern, restrictions. So, we will continue to procure globally – cheap, safe and reliable,” Lu said. “If we get them into construction before July 4, 2026, there will be no impact on ITC. By then, I think all my projects will probably be into construction. If we finish them by the end of 2027, we’ll have our ITC.”

Earlier this week, SolarBank officials said the company has time to execute on its 97 MW portfolio supported by a USD 100m project-level capital strategic partnership with CIM Group, which was announced in May.

In addition to the CIM preferred equity financing, Lu said SolarBank is sitting on USD 26m of cash and long-term debt support from banks the company works with.

Because SolarBank projects work on short timelines through approvals, permitting, notice to proceed (NTP), and construction, Lu said the company isn’t worried about the timeline for getting the pipeline operational.

Onyx Renewables CEO Mary Beth Mandanas had a similar perspective, saying her company “has strong cash flows to support its contractual pipeline both short and long term.” She declined to go into detail about how much of the company’s portfolio will reach completion by 2025 but said Onyx is preparing for long-term growth.

Mandanas said the company is less concerned about impacts from OBBB’s start of construction language because the company’s project rollout is designed with a one-to-two-year timeline.

“There will be adjustments to make based on this new legislation, but we continue to see opportunity to augment electric utilities and accelerate the transformation of the grid to more localized clean energy solutions,” Mandanas said.

While SolarBank is safe harboring projects by reaching key construction deadlines, the company isn’t jumping to procure parts just yet. Lu said the company has three domestic manufacturers it plans to work with following FEOC rulings, but the company isn’t going down that path until at least after August when the US Treasury Department offers more clarity and guidance.

“I think buying panels probably will have lots of strings attached. This whole thing is about competing with China’s dominance in renewable energy, right? You don’t want everyone ordering 35 GW of panels from China just to safe harbor, that defeats the purpose,” Lu said. “If you read the executive order, there’s a paragraph talking about guidelines for the definition of start of construction safe harboring. I think, more than likely there are going to be strings attached for the tactic of just buying parts and panels. I think it’s about getting building permits; it’s about breaking ground. It’s about spending a percentage of that real money on jobs. Because buying panels doesn’t create jobs.”

ECA Solar founder and CEO Todd Fryatt told NPM his company is also anticipating what Treasury has to say.

“We feel the OBBB language is okay; and are content with it. The executive order is the opposite. We will see what Treasury guidelines come out on/around August 18th. My sense is the EO is more bark than bite, and the Treasury is already boxed in by OBBB definitions that are cemented in the statute,” Fryatt said.

Fryatt said ECA Solar has already purchased most of its safe harbor equipment for its pipeline of projects across the next few years, including most of those expected to begin construction in 2026.

Back in December, Fryatt told NPM that he expected companies to safe harbor projects ahead of Trump taking office and during the early months of the presidency, so procurement of parts has been in the works for some time.

Additionally, Fryatt said ECA Solar is focusing on projects in its pipeline that can safely reach commercial operation date by the end of 2027, or those that it already has safe harbor equipment for. He said about 80% of ECA’s 2025 projects are safe harbored, with the other 20% already past the NTP-C point for physical work.

Nautilus Solar Vice President of Partner Development Eric Paul declined to disclose exact figures or percentages but told NPM that the company is actively safe harboring projects.

Impact on M&A

Lu said SolarBank is currently assessing six potential M&A deals with developers that have realized they can’t reach construction deadlines on their own.

“We’re going to pick up something 10 cents on the dollar, I think,” Lu said. “We are looking at a few good packages. Of course we’re going to also preserve our cash, but we are in a position to look at some of those opportunities.”

Paul from Nautilus said many developers are in the market looking for long-term asset owners to safe harbor their early-stage pipelines.

“In general, we are seeing an increased emphasis on late-stage projects as well as an execution on existing pipeline projects. Projects that are at a late-stage of development with signed interconnection agreements, permits, and other entitlements are a more advantageous position with less appetite from the market overall on early-stage transactions,” Paul said.

Fryatt said the policy changes have had little impact on project M&A opportunities for the company, but he imagines it will have a “major negative impact” on corporate M&A.

Because many of the details surrounding FEOC are still being determined, developers said it’s difficult to predict how it will impact the industry in the coming years. But some developers are hopeful about the near-term.

“From my perspective, I would say this offers us a great opportunity at least until the end of 2027,” Lu said. “It’s not just me saying that – you will see a boom before 2027, the industry will speed up, especially in community solar and C&I.”