• Three projects in late stages, including 1.2 GW Vista Sands Solar in Wisconsin
• Aims to safe-harbor projects if BBB sunsets IRA tax credits within sixty days of passage
• Tariff uncertainty sticking out as bigger concern than IRA demise

On the heels of a USD 1.5bn financing for Mammoth Solar, Doral Renewables is eyeing at least three more project financings over the next nine months, though CFO Evan Speece says that timeline may be impacted by the fate of the IRA.

In an interview with NPM, Speece said the firm has “a lot of projects coming along nicely this year, mainly in SPP and MISO, that I expect will be ready for early construction next year,” but he says the next three projects in the mature portfolio for project financing will be 1.2 GW Vista Sands Solar in Wisconsin, 600 MW Cold Creek Solar + Storage in Texas and 150 MW Brenneman Solar in Georgia.

For Brenneman Solar, Speece says the project “just needs a PPA, which we’re working on, and it will be ready for financing.” He also notes the firm’s pipeline in Texas is light after Cold Creek Solar as the firm continues to eye ongoing state legislation discussions and potential impacts.

Regardless, he says all three projects will be separate financings that, prior to last week, he would’ve “confidently said would be in the next six to nine months.” He says Doral will “move forward with construction” on the projects “regardless of what happens with the IRA,” but he says the pricing of the projects’ PPAs “obviously will be dependent on what happens with the IRA and may extent the time it takes to sign the contracts.”

Speece says even if the current version of the House bill stays as is and core clean energy tax credits such as the investment tax credit sunset 60 days after the passage of the bill, Doral will try to safe harbor the three projects outlined. Speece says he expects to have success in that effort and, in that case, the firm will still expect to finance all three projects within the next nine months.

Interestingly, Speece says he supports the elimination of IRA tax credits generally arguing it is “kind of hypocritical and dangerous for our industry to talk about solar and storage being the lowest cost of energy while still arguing we need credits.” At the same time, he says he was “surprised” to see the passage of a bill with such a “severe cutoff” and says he expects to either see that provision removed or at least lengthened in the final version of the bill.

“I wouldn’t have a problem with projects having to be placed in service by 2028 to qualify,” Speece said. “Just pick something, stick with it and be clear. What we need most is stability.”

Speece says he does expect some benefits from the end of the IRA including decreased EPC costs coinciding with the death of the IRA’s requirement to support union labor. He says he also expects to see developers “put downward pressure” on other areas of the supply chain, particularly with solar module costs.

“Some of the differential between international modules, which are in the high single digits and low double digits, and our prices, which are in the mid-20s, is because of the tax credits,” Speece said. “So, I think you will see some pricing go down there.”

On the other hand, Speece says the introduction of the new bill’s foreign-entity-of-concern (FIOC) rule, a provision in the bill restricting foreign entities from benefitting from tax credits, is “very difficult and complicated.” He says it is particularly “hard to see how the industry can adjust to that on the battery side other than significantly increasing prices.”

“The net impact of all of it is that PPA and capacity prices will continue to go up because you’re going to need to make project economic works as tax credits go away,” Speece said.

Speece argues the tariff uncertainty is more difficult to work through than the potential demise of the IRA, with PPA prices also being driven up “as we float the tariff risk to everyone we’re working with.”

“When you’re pricing something out, you always have to assume the worst case because the case is moving every day and then you have to build some additional cushion in case you miss estimates,” Speece said. “It’s very hard to make investment decisions right now so you have to build in higher returns to give yourself more risk protections.”

However, Speece says the silver lining of the tariffs may be lower costs on international modules with manufacturers “still pumping out modules” on top of “supply from previous years they haven’t sold or that have been terminated by developers” over tariff fears.

“I don’t think there’s a supply issue on the solar or battery side,” Speece said. “It’s more an issue of what do we have to comply with in terms of FIOC.”

He adds that the death of the IRA will also have an impact on supply with the removal of tax transferability for manufacturing “totally undercutting the economics of all of these new manufacturing facilities.”

“It’s a pipe dream that the industry can entirely supply itself with US supply,” Speece said.

Mammoth Solar

Prior to the newfound IRA uncertainty, Doral announced a USD 1.5bn package of debt and tax equity financing for the final three 300 MW phases of its 1.3 GW Mammoth Solar project last week. KeyBanc Capital Markets, Banco Santander and HSBC Bank USA acted as Coordinated Lead Arrangers for the $1.3 billion construction debt financing for the projects, which was closed simultaneously with a USD 200m tax equity commitment from Truist Bank for Mammoth South.

Speece notes Doral had raised bridge financing for all three phases with the same banks back in August before they had interconnection agreements in place with a full financing package with the same banks always the plan once the interconnection agreements were executed. He says the final deal took place from December 2024 to May 2025 to finalize. All three phases are expected to be online by the end of next year.

Speece notes interconnection is the key determinant of when project financing is locked in for these massive projects, explaining why the firm financed the initial 400 MW phase of Mammoth Solar back in 2023 when that phase secured its interconnection agreement. He says Doral would have financed all four phases together if the interconnection agreements had been finalized at the same time, which is the firm’s goal with the three phases of its 1.2 GW Vista Sands project in Wisconsin.

“Al of [Vista Sands’] phases are being studied together by MISO, so they’ll get their interconnection agreements at the same time, and I will finance it all as one,” Speece said. “If at any point we were capital constrained, we could also do these individual phases sequentially, but our goal would always be to do things together because it’s more economic and efficient.”

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