• Local pushback, moratoria, and restrictive ordinances are making project approvals harder
• ERCOT is still viewed as one of the fastest and most attractive markets for development, but risks becoming oversaturated

Linea Energy’s Executive VP of Development Jonathan Vasdekas reports that the backlash against data centers in some areas has become so pronounced, it is spreading to renewable energy projects including those unaffiliated with data center buildouts.

Linea is currently advancing a pipeline including a mix of greenfield and M&A after greenfielding a pipeline throughout 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Now, Vasdekas says the firm is shifting toward getting those projects permitted and built as projects start to mature in the queue with some appetite for acquisitions of later stage projects to supplement.

NPM is currently tracking seven pre-operational projects from Linea with a combined capacity of just over 2 GW. The pipeline is largely focused on Texas where the firm is advancing its 502 MW Duffy Solar + Storage project in Matagorda County, the similar 451 MW Cedar Draw Solar + Storage project in Scurry County, Texas and 251 MW Mesa View Storage in Upton County, Texas. The firm is also advancing 110 MW Hoodlebug Solar in Indiana County, Pennsylvania. Both the Mesa View and Duffy projects reached advanced stages in the last 12 months with anticipated CODs in 2027 and 2028 respectively.

However, as Linea advances these projects, Vasdekas says he has noted that, even in some traditionally development-friendly areas like Texas, new projects are drawing opposition over fears they may attract data center development.

“There’s this sense that any type of generation, even batteries, are an opening for data centers,” Vasdekas said. “We’re seeing standalone renewable projects draw questions on the assumption they might attract data centers later.”

For instance, in Matagorda County where Linea is developing Duffy Solar, an announcement that the project had signed a PPA with Google exacerbated local pushback over fears Google may pursue a data center in the county. While Vasdekas says Linea has since been able to clarify the scope of the project and work through those concerns, he considers permitting to be one of the major bottlenecks for project development today and “for the foreseeable future.”

Notably, Vasdekas agrees that people “have every right to be concerned” regarding hyperscale data center development but argues renewable projects and data centers shouldn’t get treated as the same thing. He touts statewide siting frameworks like those in Illinois and Michigan as helpful to battling against this because he says renewables remain a hot button political issue in many rural counties where “officials have always been more beholden to their constituents.”

Water and noise concerns related to data center buildouts seem to be the most pronounced ones, which Vasdekas says is understandable, but he says he wished more residents and local officials recognized the extensive permitting and environmental review process projects must go through before they are accepted.

“There’s a lot of diligence residents don’t always get to see,” Vasdekas said.

Even so, many areas are considering or passing moratoria on data center development, though some states like Texas are pushing back on the ability to do so at the county level. Vasdekas says he would expect to see more of this activity with county-level moratoria in Illinois and Indiana advancing. Interestingly, he says outright moratoria is preferable to the more covert requirements that some other areas have put into their codes that essentially amount to stealth bans that may not be readily apparent at first glance.

“Some places pass ordinances that don’t ban projects outright but layer on requirements strict enough to make them unworkable, which is tough because you often don’t find out until you’re deep into a site,” Vasdekas said.

Beyond permitting, Vasdekas says interconnection timelines remain the other major bottleneck for project development with ERCOT remaining the fastest ISO to move projects through resulting in the massive load forecasts there. He argues ERCOT’s status as an energy only market helps with that and makes it continue to be one of the best places to develop.

In contrast, Vasdekas says the process for even a standalone solar project in other areas like MISO and PJM is “intense” with multi-year interconnection studies, layered state and local permitting, and “transmission constraints that can stall a project no matter how ready it is.”

The danger, however, is overbuilding in what could become an oversaturated ERCOT market, which Vasdekas already characterizes as “super competitive.”

While Vasdekas says the remedy for at least some of the interconnection bottlenecks in MISO, particularly MISO South, is additional transmission development, he says transmission development remains “a tough place to work in.”

“MISO South has been more difficult to plan for even though they have the highest need,” Vasdekas said. “It’s been this way for decades and very few things have actually been accomplished. The follow-on effect is queue studies just keep taking longer.”