ORIGINATION: ISO-NE debut large-load forecast shows dearth of data center projects

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ISO-NE has one data center in formal study phase
Expects only around 140 MW of large load on its system in the 2040s

ISO New England has released its first large-load forecast, and the debut outlook shows little sign that the region is joining the data center boom reshaping power demand in other US markets.

The forecast, incorporated into the grid operator’s 2026 CELT report, identifies only two qualifying large-load projects in formal study: an unspecified 200 MW data center in the Northeast Massachusetts/Boston zone and an 85 MW general electrification project in Connecticut.

After ISO-NE applies project and utilization discounts, qualifying large loads are expected to add roughly 110 MW to summer and winter peak demand in the 2030s, rising to about 130 MW to 140 MW in the 2040s.

Neither project is under construction, so ISO-NE expects no effect on system demand before winter 2027-28. The NEMA data center is listed with a development timeline through 2027, but the forecast does not name the sponsor, location or end user.

The results underscore how different New England looks from regions such as the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and ERCOT, where artificial intelligence and cloud-computing demand have driven Multi-gigawatt power requests. ISO-NE said prospective large loads in New England remain limited in number and scale.

Several factors likely explain the thin pipeline. New England has high electricity costs, tight land availability, challenging permitting, limited transmission headroom for sudden large point loads and regulators wary of shifting grid upgrade costs to other customers.

ISO-NE’s queue also may not capture every retail or behind-the-meter load project, making some activity less visible than generation interconnection requests.

The broader CELT forecast still shows demand growth, especially in winter.

Gross summer peak demand is forecast to rise from 26,997 MW in 2026 to 28,958 MW in 2035, a 7.3% increase. Net summer peak demand rises 6.4%, to 26,849 MW. Winter gross peak grows much faster, climbing 30.3% from 20,508 MW in 2026-27 to 26,727 MW in 2035-36, while net winter peak increases 28.9%, to 26,411 MW.