• Grid operator executive expects forecasts audit to conclude at or prior to April 2027
• ERCOT to study smaller load demand in compliance with Governor Abbott’s order
• Permian Basin 765 kV transmission lines under review by PUCT

In an open meeting this morning, ERCOT and the Texas PUC set the stage for next week’s major decision point regarding the future of Batch Zero after Governor Greg Abbott’s data center audit requirement takes hold.During the meeting, ERCOT Senior VP of Regulatory Policy,

General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary Chad Seely briefed the PUC on its preliminary plan to move forward with a verification process for projects as a gaiting item before interconnection studies can begin. He said he expects the process, which will begin in earnest after receiving approval to do so from the PUC next week at its August 20 meeting, will take “several months” with a more specific timeline to be shared at next week’s meeting.

Seely noted ERCOT had already flagged the original Batch Zero process, through which the grid operator planned to verify project eligibility in tandem with interconnection studies, for a nine-month period from September 2026 through April 2027. He says Abbott’s audit “probably won’t take that long.”

As part of its proposal next week, Seely said ERCOT will seek approval to continue moving forward with quarterly stability assessments for eligible large loads, which will not approve energizations but will allow projects to move forward through the process in preparation for energization approval after audits are complete. Additionally, he says ERCOT will seek additional time to finish its dynamic models process as part of the gaiting criteria on who will be eligible to get into the final version of Batch Zero.

Finally, ERCOT plans to study smaller load demand between 25 and 75 MW through what Seely characterizes as “a separate work stream,” to comply with Abbott’s Aug. 3 letter. This is because not all data center load is above the 75 MW mark but still needs to be audited for interconnection under Abbott’s directive which did not specify a size threshold. Seely said there are “a lot” of medium-sized data center load below the 75 MW threshold, which ERCOT Senior VP and COO Woody Rickerson estimated at 15 percent of ERCOT’s overall future load.

Right now, Seely says ERCOT is “looking at potentially 200 GW of eligible large loads,” corresponding to “between 250 and 300 entities” that could be eligible to be in Batch Zero though he notes that figure continues to change until the verification process is complete. He says that figure also includes non-data center large loads above 75 MW, though he notes there are “only a handful of them.”

NPM is currently tracking 154 planned data centers in Texas with a combined capacity of at least 61 GW, though many have not reported final capacity needs. Another 37 with more than 20 GW of load are under construction and 134 have already been completed in the state.

Permian Basin Transmission Projects

As part of ERCOT’s goal to open up the grid to data center load, the grid operator has commissioned a number of major 765 kV transmission lines via its Permian Basin Reliability Plan to better connect East and West Texas. Rickerson noted load demand in the region jumped up from 20 GW in July 2024 to over 150 MW today “indicating all the transmission recommended in [ERCOT’s] plan is needed to serve large load without experiencing reliability problems.”

The Texas PUC will be reviewing five proposed transmission projects, four of which are being developed by Oncor. They include:

The Longshore Switch-Drill Hole Switch 765-kV Transmission Line Project impacting Andrews, Culberson, Ector, Glasscock, Howard, Loving, Martin, Midland, Reeves, and Winkler Counties

The Dinosaur Switch – Longshore Switch 765-kV Transmission Line Project impacting Borden, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Glasscock, Hamilton, Hood, Howard, Jones, Mitchell, Nolan, Runnels, Shackelford, Somervell, Stephens, Sterling, and Taylor Counties.

The Big Hill Substation to Sand Lake Switch 765-kV Transmission Line Project impacting Crane, Crockett, Irion, Pecos, Reagan, Reeves, Schleicher, Tom Green, Upton, and Ward Counties.

The Bell County East Switch to Big Hill Substation 765-kV Transmission Line Project impacting Bell, Burnet, Concho, Coryell, Lampasas, Llano, Mason, McCulloch, Menard, Milam, Mills, San Saba, Schleicher, Tom Green, and Williamson Counties.

Both the Big Hill and Bell County lines are being developed by Oncor in tandem with LCRA Transmission Services while Oncor is solo developing the Longshore and Dinosaur Switch projects itself. All four projects have had proposals for decisions filed with the PUC awaiting a filing for the Bell County East Switch project following review at the State Officer of Administrative Hearings.

A fifth project, the Howard to Solstice 765-kV Single-Circuit Transmission Line impacting Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Crockett, Edwards, Kerr, Kinney, Medina, Pecos, Real, Sutton, Terrell, Uvalde, and Val Verde Counties, is being developed by AEP Texas and CPS Energy. That project’s proposal for decision has been filed with the PUC.

Texas PUC Chairman Thomas Gleason noted no decisions on the projects would be made today and that they would be approved or rejected individually rather than as a single portfolio with “a more in-depth conversation” expected at next week’s open meeting.

The meeting included an open comment period that went over 90 minutes as over two dozen impacted landowners and some members of the Texas legislature spoke against the proposed transmission lines. Texas Senator Kevin Sparks was on hand to lobby against the transmission projects in favor of doubling down on localized oil and gas production in the Permian Basin, ERCOT has stated another point of the transmission projects is to supply power to oil and gas operations in West Texas. He also argued ERCOT’s market structure does not send correct signals because it has been “distorted by federal tax subsidies” for renewables and storage.

Texas Reps Brad Buckley and Shelby Slawson also spoke against the proposed transmission projects, arguing they deserve additional legislative oversight. Buckley said the scope of the projects extended “well beyond what was contemplated in HB 5066,” a 2023 bill the legislature passed directing ERCOT to identify regions with insufficient transmission capacity and develop comprehensive regional reliability plan, serving as the basis for its current Permian Basin plan. Slawson, meanwhile, noted that the public outcry against the projects had been so massive that some testimonies of opposition had yet to be read due to the scope. She said the Texas legislature would need to “address the CCN process” in next year’s legislative session, with which Buckley agreed.

“The only remedy is a denial of all applications for CCN and allowing the legislature to take up the issue in the next session,” Buckley said. “You are not policymakers. The legislature is.”

Val Verde County Commissioner Kerr Wardlaw was also on hand, who argued Amazon’s announcement of a data center in the Pecos area to which it will supply its own gas-fired power indicates that other data centers can do the same, reducing the need for the transmission projects.

However, Rickerson noted the projects had already been incorporated into ERCOT planning and that their denials would “invalidate work that has already been done” supporting the Batch Zero process.